For oil prices, the real risk is that Trump’s trade reforms will reduce oil demand when OPEC and its non-OPEC oil-producing countries may begin to increase production to balance market demand. Bank of America Merrill Lynch recently stated in a report that while OPEC may increase production, emerging markets may experience economic slowdown, and these two events may eventually cause oil prices to fall below $60 per barrel. The WTI crude oil spot price historical datainvestment bank did not even factor in the risk of a trade war.
However, such arbitrage transactions may not be sustainable. First, soaring oil prices may cause the United States and other economies to fall into economic recession; second, the recently announced April core CPI growth rates in Europe and the United States were lower than expected, indicating that the rise in oil prices has led to a surge in inflationary pressure. Not obvious. Once this kind of arbitrage trade ebbs, hedge funds must make a trade-off between the dollar and oil prices.
Of course, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has been a major factor affecting crude oil supply in recent days. This factor has repeatedly affected WTI crude oil prices, but the main driving force for the increase is still reflected in Brent crude oil prices. Although there are reports that production cuts have encountered problems, OPEC-led production cuts are still in progress.
If a support line is broken, then this support line will become a pressure line; in the same way, if a pressure line is broken, this pressure line will become a support line. This shows that the status of the support line and the pressure line is not static, but can be changed, provided that it is effectively broken by sufficiently strong price changes.
Falih said that the current main goal is to re-achieve a reduction in output of 00%, which should be achieved in the next two to three months. Although he did not specifically talk about how to achieve it, Saudi Arabia is the only oil-producing country with a large amount of spare capacity. The biggest problem is not the oil-producing countries, but the refineries and the demand. There is no demand for additional output in Saudi Arabia.
Although Trump has demanded that countries around the world ban the import of Iranian oil after the 4th of June, and that all countries in the world stop importing Iranian oWTI crude oil spot price historical datail as soon as possible. But there are still many countries that are unwilling to stop and try their best to help Iran.